As we reach the midpoint of 2025, the nicotine sector is facing rapid change across categories, borders, and regulatory boundaries. In this strategic snapshot, we break down 3 key trends from the first half of the year and highlight 3 watchouts shaping the horizon.
From market surges to global policy flashpoints, here’s what you need to know.
TREND #1: The Rise and Rise of Nicotine Pouches
Consumers and companies alike have embraced nicotine pouches at an accelerated pace. Discreet, smoke-free, and increasingly available in mainstream retail, pouches are now the fastest-growing category across many markets.
But success has drawn scrutiny. Regulators are taking notice of the pouch boom, and questions are intensifying around safety standards, packaging, and youth appeal. The second half of 2025 may see sharper lines drawn between open markets and tightening restrictions.
TREND #2: A Farewell to Flavours?
Flavoured nicotine products continue to spark global policy debate. While flavours remain a key reason why adult smokers switch to alternatives, they are also cited as a risk factor for youth use.
Several countries are weighing partial or total bans on flavours in pouches, vapes, or heated products. What would a market without flavours look like? And how can regulations differentiate between adult needs and youth protections?
This question is gaining urgency.
TREND #3: Trade Policy, Tariffs, and Political Turbulence
Uncertainty in U.S. trade and regulatory policy is creating ripple effects worldwide. While positions on nicotine alternatives remain unclear in some political camps, macro-level decisions—tariffs, trade realignments, and agency shifts—could reshape global supply chains.
Watch closely: geopolitics may yet become the biggest market disruptor of the year.
WATCHOUT #1: WHO’s COP11 in View
The World Health Organization’s tobacco control conference later this year may not deliver full-throated support for harm reduction. But what is said—or not said—about nicotine alternatives will impact international perception and policy.
Whether countries see reduced-risk products as a threat or a tool may depend on how the WHO frames the debate.
WATCHOUT #2: TPD and TED Rewrites Coming
The EU’s upcoming revisions to the Tobacco Products Directive (TPD) and Tobacco Excise Directive (TED) are expected to shape the next decade of European regulation. Final decisions aren’t likely in 2025, but this is the year discussions intensify.
From tax structures to product definitions, what happens in Brussels will set the tone for national legislation in 2026 and beyond.
WATCHOUT #3: New Categories Entering Key Markets
The heated tobacco category is showing signs of expansion in markets like the United States. As new products prepare for rollout, stakeholders must ask: how will consumers respond? What new regulatory frameworks will apply?
When novel formats enter large markets, everything from labeling to cross-border enforcement may need rethinking.
The Second Half Demands Strategy
What unites all six signals is one word: momentum. Whether through innovation, market growth, or policy debate, the nicotine space is moving quickly and unpredictably.
At GINN, we remain committed to providing timely insights and promoting responsible, risk-proportionate approaches to regulation. Our message to industry and policymakers alike: prepare now for the shape of what’s next.
Let’s ensure progress is grounded in science, responsibility, and public health outcomes.
