The European Union is preparing its most ambitious overhaul of tobacco and nicotine regulation in over a decade. With the simultaneous review of the Tobacco Products Directive (TPD), the Tobacco Advertising Directive (TAD), and a comprehensive recast of the Tobacco Excise Directive (TED), Brussels is signaling a shift that will affect consumers, governments, and the wider harm reduction landscape across Europe.
Why This Matters Now
Despite decades of progress, smoking remains the leading preventable cause of death in the EU, killing around 700,000 people annually. Yet smoking prevalence has stalled at 24% of adults, with youth uptake creeping upward. Meanwhile, the market has moved on: e-cigarettes, heated tobacco, and nicotine pouches are increasingly popular, but regulation remains fragmented. The Commission now seeks to realign policy with its Europe’s Beating Cancer Plan goal of reducing smoking prevalence below 5% by 2040.
The Policy Package
The reforms under discussion cover three areas:
- Product regulation (TPD). The TPD, last updated in 2014, is expected to expand plain packaging requirements, enforce stricter health warnings, and harmonize rules for all nicotine products. Several member states are pushing for EU-wide flavor bans, citing youth uptake, while others argue such restrictions could undermine harm reduction by deterring smokers from switching.
- Advertising and promotion (TAD). The 2003 directive on advertising is outdated in a digital world dominated by influencers and social media marketing. The revision aims to close these loopholes, impose obligations on online platforms, and extend advertising restrictions to novel products.
- Taxation (TED). Perhaps the most contentious, the Commission’s July 2025 proposal would substantially raise minimum excise duties on cigarettes (a 139% increase) and, for the first time, set EU-wide floors for e-liquids, heated tobacco, and nicotine pouches. It also introduces TEDOR, a new mechanism diverting 15% of national tobacco tax revenues to the EU budget, an unprecedented step in fiscal centralization.
Political Faultlines
Health-focused states such as France, Belgium, and the Netherlands support sweeping harmonization, while others, including Sweden, Portugal, Italy, and Germany, have voiced strong opposition. Sweden defends its harm reduction model and rejects equal taxation for snus and pouches. Germany and Portugal raise sovereignty and fiscal concerns, warning of revenue loss and increased illicit trade.
This unanimity requirement in the Council means compromise is inevitable. Options could include phased excise increases, exemptions or reduced rates for certain product categories, or a scaled-down EU revenue share.
Implications for Harm Reduction
The outcome of this process will shape the future of safer nicotine alternatives in Europe. A blanket approach that taxes and restricts all nicotine products as if they were cigarettes risks undermining harm reduction progress seen in countries like Sweden and the UK. Conversely, clear, proportionate regulation could provide a path for adult smokers to transition while closing loopholes that currently allow aggressive marketing to youth.
What to Watch
- Flavour bans: Will Brussels push through a harmonized prohibition, and how will it affect switching rates?
- Plain packaging: Could standardized packs become mandatory across the EU?
- Excise harmonization: Will the TEDOR proposal survive Council resistance?
- Digital accountability: How will platforms be held liable for youth-targeted promotions?
GINN’s View
For harm reduction to succeed, EU policy must distinguish between combustion and non-combustion. The science is clear: smoke-free alternatives carry significantly lower risk than cigarettes. Regulations and taxes should reflect this, supporting smokers who wish to switch while shielding youth from uptake. The coming negotiations will test Europe’s ability to balance public health ambition with economic and sovereignty realities.
